Breaking News
February 18, 2019 - How Inactivity and Junk Food Can Harm Your Brain
February 18, 2019 - Diabetes tops common conditions for frequent geriatric emergency patients
February 18, 2019 - Longer-lived sperm produces offspring with healthier lifespans
February 18, 2019 - New dental adhesive prevents tooth decay around orthodontic brackets
February 18, 2019 - New eHealth tool shows potential to improve quality of asthma care
February 18, 2019 - New Australian initiative helps emergency clinicians to improve patient care
February 17, 2019 - Apellis Pharmaceuticals’ APL-2 Receives Fast Track Designation from the FDA for the Treatment of Patients with Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria
February 17, 2019 - Researchers identify faulty ‘brake’ that interferes with heart muscle’s ability to contract and relax
February 17, 2019 - Support from trusted adults can reduce risk of dying in suicidal teens, finds study
February 17, 2019 - Heart attack awareness improved since 2008
February 17, 2019 - Exercise gives a better brain boost to older men than women
February 17, 2019 - New research disproves previous assumptions of how looks influence personality
February 17, 2019 - Cannabis use as a teenager linked to depression later in life
February 17, 2019 - Sinks by Toilets in ICU Patient Rooms Harbor Harmful Bacteria
February 17, 2019 - Cancer cells’ plasticity makes them harder to stop
February 17, 2019 - Young cannabis users have increased risk of depression and suicidal behavior
February 17, 2019 - Tasmanian Devils Likely to Survive Cancer Scourge
February 17, 2019 - Neoadjuvant PD-1 blockade seems effective in glioblastoma
February 17, 2019 - Personal, social factors play role in enabling sustainable return to work after ill health
February 17, 2019 - Mouse studies show ‘inhibition’ theory of autism wrong
February 17, 2019 - Study shows how neuroactive steroids inhibit activity of pro-inflammatory proteins
February 17, 2019 - Use of liver grafts from older donors decreased despite better outcomes in recipients
February 17, 2019 - MUSC researchers discover new mechanism for a class of anti-cancer drugs
February 17, 2019 - HPV misconceptions are causing women to miss smear tests
February 17, 2019 - Sanofi and Regeneron Offer Praluent (alirocumab) at a New Reduced U.S. List Price
February 17, 2019 - Researchers say auditory testing can identify children for autism screening
February 17, 2019 - New method analyzes how single biological cells react to stressful situations
February 17, 2019 - WVU gynecologic oncologist investigates novel treatment for cervical and vaginal cancers
February 17, 2019 - ADHD diagnoses poorly documented
February 17, 2019 - Majority of gender minority youth do not identify with traditional sexual identity labels
February 17, 2019 - AbbVie, Teneobio enter into strategic transaction to develop potential treatment for multiple myeloma
February 17, 2019 - Lower Birth Weight May Up Risk for Psychiatric Disorders
February 17, 2019 - Scientists identify reversible molecular defect underlying rheumatoid arthritis
February 17, 2019 - Moffitt researchers shed light on how CAR T cells function mechanistically
February 16, 2019 - Female Anatomy May Play Big Role in Sperm’s Success
February 16, 2019 - BMI may mediate inverse link between fiber intake, knee OA
February 16, 2019 - Movement impairments in autism can be reversed through behavioral training
February 16, 2019 - Studies address racial disparities in postpartum period and cardiovascular health
February 16, 2019 - Scientists implicate hidden genes in the severity of autism symptoms
February 16, 2019 - Decreased deep sleep linked to early signs of Alzheimer’s disease
February 16, 2019 - Neuroscientists show how the brain responds to texture
February 16, 2019 - Gilead Announces Topline Data From Phase 3 STELLAR-4 Study of Selonsertib in Compensated Cirrhosis (F4) Due to Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH)
February 16, 2019 - What Can I Do About Sweating? (for Teens)
February 16, 2019 - Companies navigate dementia conversations with older workers
February 16, 2019 - Newly developed stem cell technologies show promise for treating PD patients
February 16, 2019 - Collaborative material research could advance self-assembling nanomaterials
February 16, 2019 - Researchers take major step in creating technology that mimics the human brain
February 16, 2019 - Erasing memories associated with cocaine use reduces drug seeking behavior
February 16, 2019 - Artificial intelligence can accurately predict prognosis of ovarian cancer patients
February 16, 2019 - Racial disparities in cancer deaths on the decline for America
February 16, 2019 - FDA authorizes new interoperable insulin pump for children, adults with diabetes
February 16, 2019 - Coexisting Medical Conditions, Smoking Explain PTSD-CVD Link
February 16, 2019 - Skin Cancer Screening: MedlinePlus Lab Test Information
February 16, 2019 - ‘Happiness’ exercises can boost mood in those recovering from substance use disorder
February 16, 2019 - Cell manipulation could soon halt or reverse aging
February 16, 2019 - Pumped Breast Milk Falls Short of Breastfed Version
February 16, 2019 - Men’s porn habits could fuel partners’ eating disorders, study suggests
February 16, 2019 - Rapid progression of age-related diseases may result from formation of vicious cycles
February 16, 2019 - Immune checkpoint molecule protects against future development of cancer
February 16, 2019 - New method produces hydrogels that have properties similar to cells’ environment
February 16, 2019 - $4.1 million funding for heart research on Valentine’s Day
February 16, 2019 - General anesthesia in early infancy unlikely to have lasting effects on developing brains
February 16, 2019 - New breakthroughs for muscular dystrophy research
February 16, 2019 - First Opinion: Embryo editing for higher IQ is a fantasy. Embryo profiling for it is almost here
February 16, 2019 - Vapers develop cancer-related gene deregulation as cigarette smokers
February 16, 2019 - Bringing Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (AST) to the Community
February 16, 2019 - Decolonization protocol after hospital discharge can prevent dangerous infections
February 16, 2019 - Children with ASD more likely to face maltreatment, study finds
February 16, 2019 - Study finds genetic vulnerability to use of menthol cigarettes
February 16, 2019 - Promising drug developed to rejuvenate muscle cells
February 16, 2019 - H-RT should be the standard of care for men with low risk prostate cancer, study shows
February 16, 2019 - New technique using patients’ own modified cells could help treat Crohn’s disease
February 16, 2019 - Therapeutic endoscopy has an expanding role in the treatment of IBD
February 16, 2019 - Blood clot discovery could lead to development of better treatments for blood diseases
February 16, 2019 - Intervention can increase exclusive breastfeeding rates
February 16, 2019 - New project explores how gaming technologies can help cancer patients communicate better
February 16, 2019 - Catalyst Biosciences Presents Updated Data from Its Phase 2/3 Trial of Subcutaneous Marzeptacog Alfa (Activated) in Individuals with Hemophilia A or B with Inhibitors at the 12th Annual EAHAD Congress
February 16, 2019 - Rerouting nerves during amputation reduces phantom limb pain before it starts
February 16, 2019 - A Hormone Produced When We Exercise Might Help Fight Alzheimer’s
February 16, 2019 - Millions of British people breathe toxic air travelling to GPs
Warmer winters may set scene for higher rates of violent crimes

Warmer winters may set scene for higher rates of violent crimes

image_pdfDownload PDFimage_print

As global temperatures climb, warmer winters in parts of the country may set the scene for higher rates of violent crimes such as assault and robbery, according to a new CIRES study.

“During mild winters, more people are out and about, creating the key ingredient for interpersonal crimes: opportunity,” said Ryan Harp, a CIRES/CU Boulder Ph.D. student and lead author of the study published today in the AGU’s cross-disciplinary journal, GeoHealth.

In an innovative new assessment, Harp and his advisor, CIRES Fellow Kris Karnauskas, used powerful climate analysis techniques to investigate the relationship between year-to-year fluctuations in climate and violent crime rates in U.S. cities since 1979. Their methods accounted for the fact that crime rates have dropped significantly since the 1990s in most places. These long-term trends, driven by many societal factors, create the “baseline” for the new analysis. “Consequently, we considered the crime rate differences from that baseline,” said Karnauskas, who is also an Associate Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder.

He and Harp obtained monthly violent and property crime data for over 16,000 cities directly from the FBI, specifically the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program. The database, which was snail-mailed to Karnauskas’ lab after only a few phone calls and extraction from tape drives at a FBI data center in West Virginia, included all types of violent crimes including murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft. The scientists relied on historical climate data from NOAA’s North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR).

They divvied data up by broad climate regions in the United States, and then measured the strength of the relationship between climate variables and crime in each region.

Combining these data sets revealed a strong relationship between crime and temperature, in particular, including a much stronger correlation in winter than in summer months. For example, in winter in the northeastern United States, the relationship was so tight that temperature changes alone could explain more than half of the year-to-year ups and downs in crime rates. In the summer, the relationship between temperature and crime patterns diminished.

The strength of the wintertime correlation was surprising, Harp said, given that crime rates vary for all kinds of reasons.

“It’s highly unusual to find correlations this high in big, messy data sets, especially spanning disciplines like climate and health or sociology. The initial disbelief forced us to recheck our work more than a couple of times,” Karnauskas added.

Part of the power in the new research approach, he and Harp said, was “zooming out” from a city-by-city approach to look at all cities within a climate region. When researchers study only a single city, a local change in, for example, policing or demographics might have made it harder to pick out the impact of temperatures on crime. By aggregating thousands of cities into a region that simultaneously experiences similar year-to-year fluctuations, the connection between temperature and crime became obvious.

The new assessment also provides insight into why climate anomalies affect crime rates, including some of the strongest evidence to date in support of one theory about how crime patterns may be linked with weather and climate: The Routine Activities Theory. That theory states that despite the complexity of human behavior and external forces, interpersonal crime is driven by a relatively simple combination of ingredients: a motivated offender, a suitable target, and the absence of a guardian who could prevent a violation. So pleasant weather may increase the chances of all three factors converging; lousy weather may decrease it.

In addition to Routine Activities is the Temperature-Aggression Hypothesis, which suggests that people act more aggressively in extreme heat. Because Harp and Karnauskas found that the relationship between temperature and crime rates loosened during summer, Routine Activities Theory likely explains what we’re seeing, Harp said. During mild winters, more people are out and about more often than during colder times, creating the opportunity for interaction.

These findings imply that in some regions of the United States, warming temperatures due to anthropogenic climate change could exacerbate crime rates, especially in winter, Harp said. He and his colleagues are now dissecting data and building models with an eye to predicting future crime rates, as well as how crime might be affected by the world’s changing climate.

“This study is significant because it broadens our thinking on connections between climate and human health, to encompass a very real and dangerous threat to our bodily safety and, therefore, health,” said Karnauskas.

Source:

https://cires.colorado.edu/news/violent-crime-rates-rise-warmer-winters

Tagged with:

About author

Related Articles